Vangrove
The wisdom of your team, made measurable
Vangrove aggregates the judgment already scattered across your organization into a single, calibrated signal: sharper decisions, incentives that price themselves, and a read no dashboard, survey, or the loudest voice in the room can match.
Will Q2 revenue exceed $10M?
Crowd forecast, updated as new information comes in.
Yes
No
The problem
Most decisions lack the confidence leaders say they need
72%
of executives set above-market growth targets, but only 1 in 10 feel they have the data to back them.
McKinsey Growth Leaders Mindset Survey, 2025
20%
of employees worldwide are actively engaged at work, the lowest level since 2020.
Gallup, State of the Global Workplace, 2026
16%
of companies track engagement with real data, rather than annual surveys or manager gut-feel.
Gartner, cited 2025
The people closest to the work usually sense a deadline slipping or a deal souring long before it shows up in a report. That judgment rarely gets captured anywhere a leader can see it in time to act.
How Vangrove works
A market for what your team actually believes
Make the call
Anyone can stake a position on a real, resolvable outcome: will the deal close, will the launch date hold, will the deadline slip.
Aggregate the crowd
Individual calls settle into a single consensus number, hidden until enough people have weighed in so early answers can't anchor the room.
Score the accuracy
Every market resolves against reality, so accuracy compounds into a visible track record. The best-calibrated voices rise, not just the loudest.
The payoff
What changes once decisions have a price
Every one of these comes back to the same thing: decisions get better when there's a real number behind them instead of just a confident voice.
For leadership
The price beats any single opinion
Every employee holds a sliver of private information about how things are actually going. A market sums those slivers into a single number, and the more scattered that knowledge is across the org, the better a decision that number can support.
Gives dissent a number
When people already sense a project is off track but have nothing concrete to point to, or leadership isn't hearing what everyone else already knows, a market turns that private read into a figure that's hard to leave out of the decision.
Moves before you know why
Markets update in real time, with no trading calendar and no settlement delay. A sudden swing is itself a signal: something changed, and someone already has a read on what.
A map of where conviction lives
Where people are willing to put real stake behind an outcome is a sharper input to a resourcing decision than any planning document. Big positions are votes, weighted by how sure people are.
For teams
Compensation that sizes itself
Let people back their own confidence. Someone who's sure they'll hit a number can take a position sized to their own risk tolerance and their read on how much they can influence the outcome.
Room for more than three KPIs
Most comp plans break down past three or four metrics. A market can carry hundreds of specific, resolvable outcomes at once, each priced and tracked on its own, so pay can follow the decisions that actually matter.
Alignment you can measure
Give one team a real financial stake in another team's outcome, and alignment stops being a slide in a deck. It becomes a position both teams are watching, and a decision both teams have a stake in getting right.
Why it works
Crowds have been outguessing experts for over a century
The county-fair ox
In 1906, 800 fairgoers guessed the weight of an ox. Their median guess missed the true weight by less than 1%.
Audience vs. expert
On "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," polling the studio audience was right about 91% of the time. Phoning a single expert was right about 65%.
Corporate markets
Published research on internal prediction markets at large companies found forecast error dropped by as much as 25% versus expert forecasts alone.
Sources: Galton, "Vox Populi" (1907); public reporting on "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" audience-poll accuracy; Cowgill & Zitzewitz, "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X," Review of Economic Studies (2015).
About us
Vangrove
One of us spent years as a data scientist, including a project that tried to predict ocean wave movement well enough to turn it into a renewable energy source. The ocean did not cooperate. Tides, wind, obstructions, even wildlife kept moving the target, and no model held up for long.
That experience stuck with the team. Predicting deal closes, launch dates, and deadlines runs into the same problem. Relationships, withheld information, and office politics are just as chaotic as open water, and a model that catches the obvious cases still falls apart on the rest.
Building a smarter model isn't the fix. Aggregating the judgment of the people already inside the chaos is, the same reason crowds have consistently beaten expert forecasts for over a century. The three of us started Vangrove to build the tools to do that: a lightweight way for teams to put a number on what they believe, see where they agree and disagree, and find out, honestly and over time, who was right.
Get in touch
Want to see it in action?
Tell us a bit about your team and we'll set up a walkthrough.
robdangelo1@icloud.com